“Financial markets defined by massive geopolitical shocks and severe commodity volatility.”

That headline could easily describe both 2016 and the first half of 2026.

A dominant story in 2016 was Brexit, while the United States faced its own geopolitical uncertainty during a contentious presidential election year. China grappled with slowing GDP growth, a weakening yuan, concerns over heavily indebted "ghost cities," and the first major test of newly introduced stock market circuit breakers, which were triggered on the very first trading day of the year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. energy sector experienced a wave of bankruptcies as crude oil prices collapsed to nearly $28 per barrel. Verizon acquired Yahoo, Apple introduced AirPods, TikTok made its debut, and Tesla pushed autonomous driving further into the mainstream with its Autopilot technology. Despite the seemingly endless stream of concerning headlines, the average S&P 500 P/E multiple remained above 23x earnings, and the index finished the year with a gain of nearly 12%.

As Mark Twain famously observed:

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Ten years later, the first half of 2026 has presented investors with a different set of geopolitical risks, yet many of the same underlying themes remain. Global events continue to influence world economies and financial markets, while commodity volatility in energy, agriculture, and industrial metals continues to generate headlines.

The bankruptcy landscape has changed as well. Rather than energy companies, many of the businesses facing financial distress in early 2026 have been concentrated in consumer-oriented industries such as retail, manufacturing, and restaurants. At the same time, mergers and acquisitions have surged, particularly among companies seeking to strengthen their positions across the rapidly expanding AI ecosystem.

Innovation has also taken a different shape. Consumers are increasingly adopting smart home technologies, AI-enhanced health monitoring, and climate-controlled sleep systems designed to improve wellness and productivity. Interestingly, while technology continues to advance at a remarkable pace, we are also witnessing renewed interest in the "analog" side of the economy: tangible assets, essential infrastructure, energy systems, and real-world operations that are difficult to digitize or replace.

Throughout history, a confluence of macroeconomic forces has shaped both economies and financial markets. Yet in the short term, investors are often distracted by headlines that present seemingly binary outcomes: crisis or opportunity, boom or bust, risk or reward.

The ability to look beyond those headlines and ask, “What could go right?” or “Where might the opportunity be hiding?” is an increasingly valuable skill.

In hindsight, much of what ultimately went right in 2016 was difficult to see amid the daily barrage of negative news. Investors who remained disciplined and focused on long-term trends were rewarded despite the uncertainty of the moment.

As we enter the second half of 2026, the headlines will undoubtedly continue. Midterm elections, inflation concerns, interest-rate volatility, data center expansion, energy demand, capital expenditures, AI infrastructure, and countless unforeseen developments will compete for investors' attention.

Some of these stories will matter greatly. Others will fade as quickly as they arrive.

What remains consistent is that long-term investment success is often less about predicting the next headline and more about identifying durable trends that persist beyond it. Just as investors who remained focused amid the uncertainty of 2016 benefited from staying invested, those who can distinguish lasting opportunities from temporary noise may find similar advantages in the years ahead.

The headlines may change. The principles rarely do.

Strategas Asset Management, LLC and Baird LLC are affiliated with Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated ("Baird"), a broker-dealer and FINRA member firm, and an SEC Registered Investment Adviser, although the firms conduct separate and distinct businesses.