Policy Opportunities

Companies often use lobbying to position themselves before a shift in public policy or, to fend off challenges to their business model.
“Rent Seeking” is not a traditional factor accounted for in investment analysis and
can positively impact corporate profits via changes in public policy.

New Sovereigns

Aggressive "beggar thy neighbor" monetary policy has pushed the yield of sovereign credit to multi-cycle lows;
in some instances these rates globally have gone negative. The concomitant currency debasement has eroded the relative "safety" premium relative to equities, creating an opportunity for an alternative.

Dividend Growth

The scarcity of yield from conventional sources and the increasingly lofty valuations has created a need for a more nuanced approach to dividend investing. Companies scoring well by dividend yield and dividend growth have, independently, produced the strongest risk-adjusted returns. Together they are the powerful source of total return.

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Our Financial Products initiative leverages the thematic idea generation of the Firm’s macro...

Our Firm


May'19 Bohnsack

Handicapping the Outlook for U.S.-Sino Trade Negotiations

Negotiating a trade deal with China was never going to be easy and its always the details in the end that are the most difficult to iron out. While talks appeared to have stalled, China and U.S. policymakers claim they did not collapse following shorten negotiations but the near-term outlook does not look positive. With stock market viewing the outcome as binary that the trade deal gets done, it is likely to create more volatility as summer approaches. Hang in there.
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Apr'19 Bohnsack

The “Earnings Recession” that Wasn’t

While nothing new, questions certainly persist on the durability of the Long Cycle.  A cursory look at recent headlines from the financial press might leave one believing that the worst is upon (and even ahead), as opposed to behind, us.  While we would fully acknowledge the pace of domestic growth has moderated and the potential is real for the market advance to fatigue given headline weakness, we have tempered our expectations for domestic equity returns in t...